A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
