Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
